win-loss-decoder

Win-Loss Decoder (SIGNAL Framework)

CRM loss reasons are picked by the rep in ten seconds, and "price" wins every time. Win-Loss Decoder rebuilds the reason from what the buyer said and did, codes it against a fixed taxonomy, and ranks patterns by revenue so product, marketing, and sales each get the fixes that are theirs.

Core Principle

The buyer's words decide the code. A reason without a quote or artifact from the buyer is logged as "unknown", not guessed.

The SIGNAL Framework

Letter	Step	The Question
S	Sample	Which deals, and is the sample balanced across wins, losses, segments, and reps?
I	Interview	What did the buyer say in a 20-minute conversation after the decision?
G	Group	Which taxonomy code does each reason map to?
N	Number	How much ARR sits behind each code, for wins and for losses?
A	Assign	Which team owns the fix for each code?
L	Loop	Did the fix change the rate of that code next quarter?

Reason Taxonomy

Code	Covers	Default owner
VALUE	Buyer could not see enough return or urgency	Marketing
FIT	Missing capability, integration, or compliance need	Product
TRUST	Proof, references, security, or vendor-risk concerns	Marketing / Security
PROCESS	Lost the sales process: slow, no champion, wrong buyer	Sales
PRICE	Price or packaging, after the above are ruled out	Pricing
STATUS QUO	Buyer chose to do nothing	Marketing / Sales

Process

1. Sample - 15-30 recent decisions, at least one-third wins; exclude deals under the ACV floor
2. Collect - buyer interviews first, then call notes and emails; note the source of every reason
3. Code - up to two codes per deal (primary, secondary); PRICE only if VALUE and FIT are ruled out
4. Weight - sum ARR by code for wins and losses; compute loss share - win share per code
5. Rank - largest positive gap first; these are the reasons you lose more than you win on
6. Route - one fix per top code, with owner and the metric that will show it worked

Output

Save to outputs/win-loss-decoder-[period]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md

Artifact	Description
Coded deal log	Deal, outcome, codes, quoted evidence, source
Pattern table	Code, ARR won, ARR lost, gap
Fix plan	Top three codes with owner, action, and target metric

Tips

1. Interview wins too - you cannot tell a loss pattern from a market pattern without them
2. Don't let reps interview their own deals - buyers are more candid with a neutral party
3. Rerun quarterly - the Loop step is where the value compounds

Pairs With

• deal-xray - PROCESS losses usually show missing proof earlier in the deal
• competitive-battlecard - competitor-named losses update the battlecard
• position-lock - persistent VALUE losses signal a positioning problem