market-analyzer

Market Analyzer (SCOPE Framework)

Full-spectrum market analysis producing investment-grade market maps with sizing, growth drivers, risk factors, and segment-level deep dives. Goes beyond basic TAM/SAM/SOM.

When to Use

• New market entry decisions
• Board/investor market briefings
• Product strategy validation
• Fundraising market slides
• Annual strategic planning

What You'll Need

Critical inputs (ask if not provided):

• Market or product category to analyze
• Geographic scope (global, US, EMEA, etc.)
• Time horizon (current year + forecast period)

Nice-to-have:

• Whitespace Finder output (opportunities to size)
• Signal Radar output (trends affecting the market)
• Existing market data or analyst reports

Process

Step 1: Market Definition

Before sizing, rigorously define the market boundaries:

• Category definition: What products/services are included? What is excluded?
• Buyer definition: Who purchases? (roles, company types, segments)
• Use case definition: What problems does this market solve?
• Adjacent markets: What related markets overlap or compete for budget?

Step 2: SCOPE Analysis

Analyze the market across 5 structural dimensions:

Dimension	What It Covers	Key Questions
Size & Growth	TAM/SAM/SOM + growth trajectory	How big? How fast growing? Top-down AND bottom-up?
Competitive Density	Number and strength of competitors	How crowded? Any dominant players? Fragmented or consolidated?
Opportunity Windows	Timing-sensitive opportunities	What market shifts create openings? What is the window duration?
Power Dynamics	Who holds power in the value chain	Buyer power? Supplier power? Platform dependencies? Regulatory influence?
Economic Drivers	What drives market growth or contraction	Macro trends? Technology adoption curves? Budget cycle patterns?

Step 3: Multi-Method Sizing

Use THREE methods and triangulate:

Method 1: Top-Down

• Start with total industry spend (from analyst reports, government data)
• Apply relevant filters (geography, segment, use case)
• Result: TAM -> SAM -> SOM

Method 2: Bottom-Up

• Count addressable accounts/users in target segments
• Multiply by expected annual contract value
• Apply realistic penetration rates (year 1: 1-3%, year 3: 5-10%)
• Result: Revenue potential by segment

Method 3: Value-Theory

• Calculate the economic value your product creates for customers
• Estimate what percentage of that value you can capture as price
• Multiply by addressable customer count
• Result: Value-based market ceiling

Triangulation: Compare all 3 methods. If they are within 30% of each other, confidence is HIGH. If 30-60% apart, confidence is MEDIUM. Over 60% apart, revisit assumptions.

Step 4: Segment Deep Dives

For each major segment, produce:

• Segment size and growth rate
• Segment-specific competitive landscape
• Segment-specific buyer behavior
• Segment attractiveness score (1-10): size x growth x accessibility x fit
• Strategic recommendation: Enter / Monitor / Avoid

Step 5: Risk and Sensitivity

Identify the top 5 assumptions driving the sizing and test each:

• What if growth rate is 50% lower than projected?
• What if a major platform changes pricing/policy?
• What if a new entrant disrupts the category?
• What if regulatory changes shrink the addressable market?

For each risk, estimate: probability (%), impact on sizing (%), and mitigation.

Output

Save to outputs/market-analysis-[market]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md

Deliverables:

1. Market Map: Visual landscape showing segments, competitors, sizing, and growth with your positioning
2. Sizing Summary: TAM/SAM/SOM via 3 methods with triangulation confidence score
3. Segment Scorecards: Per-segment analysis with attractiveness scores and strategic recommendations
4. Risk Register: Top 5 assumptions with sensitivity analysis and mitigation strategies
5. Executive Brief: 2-page summary suitable for board/investor presentations

Chain Connections

• Next skill: Run journey-architect to map how customers in your target segments actually buy
• Also feeds: budget-allocator (market size informs spend levels), position-lock (segment dynamics shape positioning)
• Enhanced by: Run after whitespace-finder (size the specific opportunities discovered)