market-research

Market Research

Produce a directional but defensible market view for GTM planning — category, sizing, segments, demand, whitespace — anchored in evidence with confidence labels.

Framework(s) used: TAM/SAM/SOM triangulation — size a target market via three independent estimates that must agree within ±25% before publishing. If multiple frameworks apply, trigger Clarification Protocol so the user picks.

Clarification Protocol

When you encounter any of the following, STOP and ask the user — do NOT make a silent assumption, and do NOT flatly refuse:

• Ambiguous or missing input
• A fork in approach (multiple valid frameworks, segments, scopes, or sources)
• A rule that would block progress
• An assumption that materially shapes the output
• Unverified data that a downstream step depends on

Present 2–4 concrete options with trade-offs and your recommendation.

Format:

Decision needed: <what's being decided> Options:

• A) <option> — trade-off
• B) <option> — trade-off
• C) <option> — trade-off My recommendation: <X> because <reason>. Confirm or pick a different option before I continue.

Refusing to proceed is NEVER the final answer. Every "block" must come with an override option. If the user picks an override, honor it on the first request — do not re-prompt the same block multiple times in one run.

Scope

This skill ONLY produces market sizing reports (TAM/SAM/SOM with segmentation, trends, and whitespace). Do not expand into adjacent topics. If the user's request implies adjacent scope, trigger Clarification Protocol with options to (A) stay in scope, (B) note the adjacent need as a follow-up, (C) hand off to a different skill.

Verification Requirements

Before producing the final output, every factual claim about external entities (markets, competitors, people, companies, technologies, pricing, benchmarks) MUST be verified via web search.

• Use a quick lookup for single-fact checks (one company, one stat).
• Use a deep search for landscape/trend questions (multi-source synthesis).
• Tag every verified claim inline as [H/M/L][Sn].
• End the report with a ## Sources section.
• Unverified claims belong in ## Assumptions to Validate, NOT in the main analysis.

Sources are mandatory. If you cannot cite a source for a factual claim, do not state it as fact — move it to Assumptions to Validate or trigger Clarification Protocol.

When to Use

• User asks "How big is this market?" or "Help me size this"
• User needs category framing or segment analysis
• User wants demand validation or whitespace mapping
• Pre-GTM grounding before competitor-analysis, icp-definition, or positioning-strategy
• Investor or board-prep market overviews
• Geographic expansion analysis

Legend — Confidence Score

• [H] High — ≥2 independent primary sources within 6 months
• [M] Medium — single primary source OR multiple secondary sources agree
• [L] Low — inferred / single secondary source / >12 months old

Quick Reference

Concept	Definition
Market type (Steve Blank)	existing / resegmented / new / clone — picks sizing approach
TAM / SAM / SOM	Total → reachable → realistic 3yr capture; ≥2 methods, reconcile if >2x gap
Confidence labels	[H] / [M] / [L] on every number — required
JTBD format	"When [situation], buyer wants to [motivation], so they can [outcome]"
Bowling-pin score	Pain + Urgency + Reach + Reference + Capacity, 1–5 each = /25
Whitespace lenses	Segment / use-case / pricing / experience

Procedure

1. Diagnose market type. Apply Steve Blank's framework: existing / resegmented / new / clone. Output with rationale; determines valid sizing methods.
2. Frame the category. Produce (a) buyer-recognizable category label verified against G2/Capterra, (b) 2–4 adjacent categories, (c) JTBD statement. If buyers can't recognize in 5 seconds, prefer JTBD framing.
3. Set boundaries. Geography (named, not "global"), customer type (firmographic), use cases (included + excluded), time horizon, buyer persona scope. If undefined, default to the most common scope inferred from context, then trigger Clarification Protocol with options: (A) confirm inferred scope, (B) provide explicit boundaries, (C) override and proceed with broad scope (output flagged lower-confidence).
4. Build directional sizing. Use ≥2 methods from {bottom-up, top-down, value-theory, analogous}. Show math. Tag every assumption with source + confidence. Reconcile if methods disagree by >2x. See ${HERMES_SKILL_DIR}/references/sizing-frameworks.md.
5. Segment with bowling-pin scoring. Produce 3–7 segments. Score each 1–5 on pain/urgency/reach/reference/capacity. Highest = beachhead. See ${HERMES_SKILL_DIR}/references/segmentation-rubric.md.
6. Gather demand signals. Sweep search, community, hiring, capital, review-site, and internal signals. Synthesize 5–10 tagged [H/M/L].
7. Identify whitespace. Apply 4-lens diagnostic (segment/use-case/pricing/experience). 3–5 hypotheses with validation cards. See ${HERMES_SKILL_DIR}/references/whitespace-examples.md.
8. Synthesize + risks register. Every load-bearing claim → assumption flag. ≥3 ways the market view could be wrong.
9. Route downstream. Recommend next skill with carry-forward inputs.

Pitfalls

• Treating TAM as a GTM plan — SAM and SOM drive decisions
• Single-source sizing — caps at Medium confidence; always triangulate
• Confusing Reddit upvotes with purchasing intent
• Over-relying on analyst reports for emerging categories — Gartner/Forrester lag
• False precision — 3 decimal places on 50%-uncertain numbers is malpractice
• Skipping the assumptions register — hidden assumptions silently break later

Verification

1. User can defend TAM/SAM/SOM to a skeptical investor without rebuilding the math
2. Beachhead segment named with rationale
3. User knows which assumption, if invalidated, would change the strategy
4. Downstream skills can use output without re-research

Output Format

• Sections required: Market Size, Trends, Segments, Competitors, Risks, Sources, Assumptions to Validate
• Tables / fields: Segment table (Segment, Size estimate [Sn], Growth rate [Sn], Notes); Competitor mention table (Name, Position, Source [Sn])
• Length target: 600–1,200 words
• File type: markdown
• Mandatory closing sections: Verification Notes, Sources, Assumptions to Validate, Next Step